Declaring Early for the NFL Draft: The Decision Explained
The factors behind a college player's choice to leave school early for the NFL, from draft projections and rookie pay to injury risk, degrees and what happens if the plan falls short.
Every winter, a number of college players face a choice that will shape the rest of their careers: stay in school for another season, or declare for the NFL Draft and begin the path to professional football. On the surface the decision looks simple. A player who believes he is ready should go, and one who does not should wait. In practice it involves projections that nobody can guarantee, money that is difficult to compare, health risks that cannot be predicted and personal considerations that outsiders do not see.
This guide explains the main considerations behind that decision, in neutral terms. It does not tell any player what to do, because the right answer depends on the individual, and the people best positioned to advise him are his family, his coaches, his agent or advisor, and the NFL's own evaluation process. It is also based on general rules that change from year to year, so a player should confirm current deadlines and policies with his athletic department, the NCAA and the NFL.
What declaring means
To be draft-eligible, a player must be at least three years removed from high school. A player who meets that rule and still has college eligibility left can choose to declare for the draft by the league's deadline, typically in January. Declaring tells the league that he wants to be considered. For a detailed explanation of the eligibility rule and the steps in the process, see how NFL draft eligibility works for college players.
The key point for this article is that declaring is a major decision with limited ability to reverse it. Rules about returning to college have varied, and some versions have provided windows in which a player could withdraw, but a player should not assume that he can return after declaring.
The information a player can get
Players do not have to make the decision blind. Several sources of information are available.
The NFL's draft advisory evaluation
The league has historically provided a service in which a committee of personnel evaluators gives a player an estimate of where he might be drafted. The ratings are usually grouped, for example, into categories such as expected early-round, mid-round or later-round selection, or a recommendation to stay in school. The evaluation is an estimate, not a promise. Teams make their own decisions, and a player can rise or fall in the months before the draft because of workouts, health and the strength of the class.
College coaches and staff
College coaches often have relationships with NFL teams and can give a sense of how scouts see a player. Some programs have staff members who help players with the process. The coach's advice may differ from the player's best interest, since the coach also wants a good team, so a player may want several opinions.
Agents and advisors
Rules about contact with agents are set by the NCAA and by state laws. A player should understand them before speaking with an agent. Agent advice may be valuable, but agents also have a financial interest in a player turning professional. A player should look for transparency about fees and expectations, and should confirm that anyone he works with is properly registered.
Family, mentors and former players
People who have been through the process can describe how it feels, what mistakes to avoid and what the first year was like.
The football factors
Projected draft position
The most obvious question is where the player is expected to be selected. Early selections generally come with significantly larger rookie contracts than later ones, and the difference between rounds can be large. Players projected in the first round have a different financial situation from those expected in late rounds, and those expected to go undrafted have a very different picture.
Rookie contracts for drafted players are set by a rookie wage scale under the collective bargaining agreement. Each draft slot has an associated pay range, with salary decreasing as the draft goes on. The details, including exact amounts, change with each agreement. See NFL rookie contracts and the rookie wage scale for how it works.
Position and opportunity
Positions are valued differently by teams, and a player's value depends on the depth of the position in a particular class. A player at a position that is thin in the class may rise, while one at a crowded position may fall. Some positions tend to have shorter careers on average, which can influence timing.
Development and readiness
A player may be talented but need more experience. Another year of college could improve his skills, film and draft stock. But staying does not guarantee improvement, and he risks injury, a poor year or a change in the offense.
Fit and team situation
A player's college situation matters too. A player who expects to be a starter again may benefit from another season. A player who has lost a job or is unhappy with his role may have different incentives. The transfer portal gives players an option to change schools instead of leaving, and some players choose it. See the transfer portal explained.
The financial factors
Rookie pay and the long view
The first contract is only part of a player's earning life. A player who is drafted high gets a larger first contract and may move to a second contract sooner. A player who stays may be drafted higher, or not. Because careers in the NFL can be short and physically demanding, some advisors emphasize getting started earlier, while others emphasize being fully ready. Neither is always right.
College earnings and name, image and likeness
In recent years, college athletes have been permitted to earn money from their name, image and likeness (NIL), and schools have developed new ways to compensate and support athletes. This means a player who stays in college may earn money while doing so, which changes the comparison between staying and leaving. The amount varies widely by player, school and market, and rules continue to change. See name, image and likeness in college football for how it works.
Insurance
Some players buy insurance that pays if an injury reduces their draft value, called loss-of-value insurance. Players may also have access to disability coverage through the NCAA or their school. Policies have costs, conditions and exclusions, so a player should read the details with a professional before deciding. Insurance does not eliminate risk.
Agents and the cost of preparing
Players pay for training and preparation before the draft, including facilities, coaches and travel, and an agent or advisor may front the costs in exchange for the right to represent the player. These arrangements have contract terms and rules, so players should be careful to understand them.
The personal and academic factors
Degree progress
Many players want to finish their degrees. Colleges and the league have programs to help players return to school after leaving early. Players should ask how their credits will be treated, what it would take to complete the degree and whether the school offers support for returning athletes. A degree can be valuable regardless of football outcomes. See academic eligibility for college athletes for how progress toward a degree is measured.
Health
A player's health may play a role in either direction. A player who has an injury may see his draft value drop, and might choose to stay to recover. A player who is healthy might choose to go before a future injury. Injury risk is real in both situations. The decision should include medical advice from a doctor or team physician.
Family and personal circumstances
Family needs, personal goals and readiness for life as a professional also matter. Some players are supporting relatives. Some want to experience another year of college. These considerations are valid and cannot be reduced to numbers.
Mental readiness
Moving to the NFL means leaving a familiar environment and entering a business. A player should consider whether he is ready for that transition. Many programs provide mentoring and sports-psychology resources.
A decision framework
Because every case is unique, there is no formula. A framework can still help a player organize his thinking. Consider these questions:
- What does the evaluation say? Treat the league's feedback as an estimate, not a guarantee.
- What happens if the estimate is too optimistic? Players who are drafted later or go undrafted face different financial outcomes.
- What would another year add? Skills, experience, health, a degree and income from NIL are all possible benefits. So are risks.
- What is the downside of staying? Injury, a decline in production or a change in coaches can reduce value.
- What is the downside of leaving? A player may not get a roster spot or may not develop as hoped.
- What are the rules on returning? Know which options exist before declaring.
- Who benefits from each answer? Be aware of the incentives of each advisor.
- What does the player want? The decision belongs to him.
A hypothetical comparison
The following example is hypothetical and uses no real players. Imagine two juniors at different programs.
Player A is told by several sources that he is likely to be selected in the early rounds. He is healthy, has a good chance at a degree later through a program for returning athletes, and his position is in demand. He considers that another year might raise his value but could also expose him to injury. He decides to declare.
Player B is told he is likely a mid- to late-round pick or an undrafted free agent. He is a starter on a good team and believes another year could raise his grade. He also has a degree to complete and NIL income. He decides to return for another season.
Neither decision is right or wrong. The difference is in the information, circumstances and preferences. The example shows that the same question can have different answers.
What happens after declaring
A player who declares enters a structured process.
- Preparation. He trains for the combine and pro day, often at a specialized facility. See combine preparation for college prospects.
- Evaluation. He takes part in the combine if invited, plus pro day workouts and team visits. See the NFL scouting combine.
- The draft. He is selected or goes undrafted. See inside the NFL draft.
- After the draft. Drafted players sign rookie contracts. Undrafted players choose among free agent offers.
It is worth noting that the process is demanding and that not every player performs as expected. Workouts can help or hurt a player, and the information that emerges can change his draft position.
Common misconceptions
- "If you're good enough, you should go." Being good enough to be drafted is different from being ready to succeed, and different players weigh readiness differently.
- "Staying is always safe." Staying exposes a player to injury and variation in performance.
- "Leaving early is always about money." Money matters, but many players also cite readiness, family or a desire to start the next stage.
- "You can always come back." Rules differ, and a player should confirm before declaring.
- "Every advisor is neutral." Advisors have their own interests, so a player should seek multiple perspectives.
Where to learn more
To follow the process and see how prospects are rated, visit our draft section and the rankings page. College programs and their players are listed in the college directory.
The short version
- Declaring early means a draft-eligible player with college eligibility left asks to be considered for the NFL Draft, usually by a January deadline.
- It is a major decision with limited ability to undo, so a player should confirm the current rules.
- Information comes from the league's evaluation, coaches, advisors and family, and each has its own limits.
- Football factors include projected draft position, position demand, readiness and fit.
- Financial factors include the rookie wage scale, NIL income, insurance and the cost of preparing.
- Personal factors include a degree, health, family and readiness.
- No formula exists; a clear list of questions and honest advice help.