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Targets, Air Yards and Usage Metrics

By 4Football Staff · · 10 min read

A plain-language glossary and method for fantasy usage numbers: targets, target share, air yards, routes, snap share and touches, with worked examples and the traps that make them mislead.

Fantasy football has a vocabulary problem. A manager opens a stats page and finds columns labeled target share, air yards, aDOT, WOPR, YPRR and snap share, and the temptation is either to ignore them all or to treat them as magic. Neither works. These numbers exist for one reason: they measure opportunity, and opportunity is the part of a player's performance that repeats best from week to week.

Think of it this way. A player's fantasy points are the product of two things: what the offense gives him, and what he does with it. The second half is full of luck. A defender slips, a pass is tipped, a tackle is missed, and a 5-yard catch becomes a 55-yard touchdown. The first half is mostly decisions: the play call, the quarterback's read, the coach's depth chart. Decisions are far stickier than luck.

This article defines the common usage metrics, shows how to calculate the simple ones by hand, and explains where each can mislead. Where a metric has several versions, the definition below is the common one, but data providers differ, so check the glossary of whatever source you use.

The building blocks

Snaps and snap share

A snap is a play on which a player is on the field. Snap share is the percentage of the offense's plays he plays. If a team runs 60 plays and a player is on the field for 45, his snap share is 75 percent.

Snap share is the broadest measure of role and the easiest to find. Its weakness is that it does not tell you what the player does on those snaps. A tight end who blocks on every play and a tight end who runs a route on every play can have identical snap shares.

Routes run and route participation

A route run is counted when a player runs a pass pattern on a passing play. Route participation is routes run divided by the team's dropbacks. For receivers, tight ends and pass-catching backs it is a cleaner role measure than snap share, because it removes run plays and blocking snaps.

Targets and target share

A target is a pass thrown to a player, whether or not it is caught. The official count depends on the scorer's judgment about who the quarterback was throwing to, so a few borderline passes, such as throwaways or batted balls, are handled differently by different sources.

Target share is a player's targets divided by his team's total targets, which is close to the team's pass attempts. If a team throws 35 passes and a receiver is targeted seven times, his share is 20 percent. Target share is useful because it adjusts for how much the team passes.

Carries, touches and opportunity share

A carry is a rushing attempt. Touches are carries plus receptions. Opportunities is a term used for carries plus targets, which counts the chances a player gets whether or not a pass is completed. Opportunity share divides these by the team's total for the same categories. For running backs it is a simple measure of workload.

Air yards and what they measure

Air yards

Air yards measure how far a pass travels in the air from the line of scrimmage to the point where the receiver catches it, or would have caught it. A 10-yard completion that is thrown 7 yards past the line and followed by 3 yards of running after the catch has 7 air yards. An incomplete pass that falls 30 yards downfield still counts as 30 air yards for the intended receiver.

That is the interesting part: air yards count intended depth whether or not the pass is complete. They measure the opportunity to gain yards, not the yards gained.

Average depth of target

Average depth of target, often written aDOT, divides a receiver's air yards by his targets. A high number means the receiver is used downfield. A low number means he works short and underneath. Neither is better, but they describe different players.

Profile Typical aDOT Typical catch rate Fantasy flavor
Deep threat High Lower Fewer catches, big plays, boom or bust
Intermediate receiver Middle Middle Balanced
Short-area or slot receiver Low Higher Steady catches, good in reception leagues
Pass-catching back Very low High Volume of small gains

Air yards share

Air yards share compares a player's air yards with the team total. A receiver with a large share is the main downfield target for his quarterback. Since air yards are tied to the pass's depth and not its outcome, a receiver can have a high share and a modest stat line if his quarterback is inaccurate or his deep targets keep falling incomplete.

Combining volume and depth

Analysts have built composite measures that combine target share and air yards share into one number. One popular version is the weighted opportunity rating (WOPR), which gives more weight to target share than to air yards share. The exact weights are published by the analysts who created the number, so check the definition before comparing across sources. The point of such a measure is to give you a single usage score that predicts fantasy points better than either piece alone.

Receiving air conversion

If you divide a receiver's receiving yards by his air yards, you get a rough measure of how much he adds after the catch and how efficiently he turns downfield chances into yards. A ratio that is very high may mean the receiver gains lots of yards after the catch or is simply catching short passes. A ratio that is very low may mean he is targeted deep and misses often. Since extremes tend to move toward the middle over time, treat unusual ratios as a prompt for caution, not as proof of skill.

Efficiency metrics built on usage

Usage numbers are the foundation. A few efficiency numbers rest on top of them.

  • Yards per route run (YPRR). Receiving yards divided by routes run. It credits the player for what he does whenever he is on a pattern, which makes it more complete than yards per target for evaluating a receiver's overall production. It requires reliable route counts.
  • Targets per route run (TPRR). Targets divided by routes run. It shows how often the quarterback looks for the player when he is in the pattern. A high rate suggests the player is a trusted option.
  • Yards per target. Receiving yards divided by targets. It rises and falls with a few big plays, and it rewards short, high-percentage passes as much as deep ones.
  • Yards per carry. Rushing yards divided by carries. Familiar and noisy.
  • Fantasy points per opportunity or per snap. Points divided by touches, opportunities or snaps. These give a direct sense of efficiency. Our article on fantasy points per snap and efficiency goes deeper.

Worked example: a hypothetical receiver

Take an invented receiver, over a four-game stretch. The team threw 140 passes. He was targeted 28 times. His air yards totaled 252 on those targets. The team's total air yards were 1,120. He caught 18 passes for 230 yards. The team dropped back on 150 plays, and he ran a route on 126 of them.

  1. Target share. 28 divided by 140 is 20 percent.
  2. aDOT. 252 divided by 28 is 9.
  3. Air yards share. 252 divided by 1,120 is about 22.5 percent.
  4. Route participation. 126 divided by 150 is 84 percent.
  5. Targets per route run. 28 divided by 126 is about 22 percent.
  6. Yards per route run. 230 divided by 126 is about 1.8.
  7. Catch rate. 18 divided by 28 is about 64 percent.

What do the numbers say? He is a near-full-time receiver, with about a fifth of the team's targets and roughly a fifth of its air yards, used at a middle depth. That is a healthy role. If his touchdown count is zero, expect it to rise. If it is six, expect it to cool. The usage story is stable while the scoring story is noisy, which is exactly the point.

Expected fantasy points

A newer idea turns usage into a single score. An expected fantasy points model looks at every opportunity a player received, such as a target of a certain depth in a certain part of the field, or a carry from a certain distance to the goal line. It asks how many points that kind of opportunity has been worth, on average, across the league. Adding those averages up gives the points a typical player would be expected to score from the same chances.

Comparing expected points with actual points is a way to tell lucky from unlucky. If a player scored far more than expected, he probably benefited from long plays or touchdowns that will not recur. If he scored far less, he may be due for better results. Models differ in their inputs and methods, so the absolute numbers vary by source. What carries over is the question the idea asks: did the opportunities justify the production?

For a manager without access to such a model, the same logic works on a smaller scale. Count the carries from the five-yard line and the targets in the end zone, add them to the player's overall volume, and compare that to the scoring column.

Reading a four-week table

Here is a small table of invented numbers for two backs over four weeks, with team-level shares in parentheses. It shows how the trend, not the total, tells the story.

Back Week 1 touches Week 2 touches Week 3 touches Week 4 touches
Back A 14 (45%) 16 (50%) 19 (58%) 22 (66%)
Back B 21 (70%) 20 (64%) 16 (52%) 13 (41%)

Back B has more touches in total over the first two weeks, but the direction has turned: his share is falling while Back A's is rising. A manager who only looked at season totals would still be holding B and missing A. A manager who looks at the trend asks what changed, whether it is an injury, a new package or a coach's decision, and acts on the answer.

Where usage metrics mislead

Usage numbers are better than box scores, but they are not magic. These are the traps to remember.

  1. Small samples. A share calculated over one game means little. Three or four games begin to say something, and a full season says more.
  2. Garbage time. When a game is decided, offenses and defenses change. A trailing team throws more and a leading team runs more, which can inflate or deflate shares in a way that does not repeat.
  3. Injuries to teammates. A receiver's target share can rise because a teammate is hurt. When the teammate returns, the share falls. Always ask why a number changed.
  4. Role changes. A new play-caller, a trade or a change at quarterback can alter the whole structure. A usage trend before the change may not apply after it.
  5. Scoring format. A target is worth more in a reception-scoring league than in a standard one, and air yards matter more in leagues that reward yards.
  6. Data differences. Each provider counts targets, air yards and routes a little differently. Compare numbers from a single source.
  7. Opportunity quality. Not all targets are equal. A target in the end zone and a target on a screen behind the line are different events with different values.
  8. Mismatch with scheme. A player with strong usage in a short-passing system may not keep it if the team's approach changes.

Using the metrics in practice

Here is a straightforward approach for a manager who does not want to spend hours a week on spreadsheets.

  • Pick two or three metrics and stick to them. For receivers, target share, routes and air yards share. For running backs, carries, targets and snap share.
  • Look at trends over three or four weeks. Rolling windows show whether a role is growing or shrinking.
  • Check the reason behind big changes. If a number jumped, find the cause.
  • Pair usage with touchdown opportunity. Our article on red zone opportunities and touchdown regression shows how to add the scoring layer.
  • Use usage to find waiver targets. A player whose usage is rising on a team with injuries can be a good pickup before his scoring catches up.
  • Use usage to sell high. A player with great stats and weak usage is a candidate to trade before the production fades.

The site's leaders pages show who is producing the most counting stats, and the player pages carry individual lines, which is where you can compare what players have done against the usage you are tracking.

How usage differs by position

Position Most useful numbers Why
Quarterback Dropbacks, attempts, rushing attempts Pass volume plus the rushing floor
Running back Carry share, goal-line carries, targets, routes Workload and passing-down role
Wide receiver Target share, routes, air yards share Opportunity and depth
Tight end Route participation, target share, alignment Separates receivers from blockers
Kicker and defense Team scoring chances and opponent offense Mostly team-level, not individual usage

For detail on each position, our guides to evaluating running backs and wide receivers apply these numbers directly, and the fantasy section collects the site's tools.

A word on what the numbers cannot tell you

Usage metrics describe the past. They do not tell you how a defender will cover a receiver next Sunday or whether a coach will change his mind. They also do not account for injuries that happen between your reading and kickoff. Treat them as probabilities. A receiver with a 25 percent target share is not guaranteed seven targets, but he is more likely to see seven than a receiver with a 12 percent share.

The best use of these numbers is to make you slower to react to results and quicker to react to roles. When a player's role changes, act. When only his results change, wait.

The short version

  • Fantasy points are opportunity times outcome, and opportunity repeats better.
  • Snap share measures role broadly; routes and route participation sharpen it for pass catchers.
  • Target share adjusts for team pass volume; air yards and aDOT describe depth; air yards share shows who is the main downfield option.
  • Efficiency numbers such as yards per route run and targets per route run sit on top of usage.
  • Watch for small samples, garbage time, injuries and role changes.
  • Compare numbers from one source, and rely on trends over several weeks.
  • Use the numbers to find roles that are rising before the scoring shows it.

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