Stays with Las Vegas or Retires: 78% on Oct 20, 94% now.
Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.
Why it moved
Nov 8, 11 PM ETStays with Las Vegas or…: 80% → 93%
No headline about it in the hours around this move.
The biggest swings over the chart's period, each with the headlines about the market's subject published in the hours before it. News and odds moving together is not proof one caused the other.
Every outcome
Outcome
Chance
Day
Bid
Ask
Pays
Contracts
Stays with Las Vegas or Retires
94%
▲ 2
94¢
95¢
$1.05
552.0K
San Francisco
2%
▼ 1
1¢
4¢
$25.00
152.0K
Dallas
2%
▼ 2
1¢
3¢
$33.33
343.9K
Buffalo
1%
3¢
$33.33
115.5K
Cleveland
1%
1¢
2¢
$50.00
77.1K
Detroit
1%
▲ 1
3¢
$33.33
110.6K
Seattle
1%
3¢
$33.33
148.8K
Philadelphia
1%
2¢
$50.00
224.0K
Arizona
<1%
1¢
$100.00
3.9K
Atlanta
<1%
1¢
$100.00
21.8K
Baltimore
<1%
1¢
$100.00
263.7K
Carolina
<1%
1¢
$100.00
34.8K
Chicago
<1%
1¢
$100.00
367.8K
Cincinnati
<1%
1¢
$100.00
113.7K
Denver
<1%
1¢
$100.00
7.2K
Green Bay
<1%
1¢
$100.00
24.9K
Houston
<1%
1¢
$100.00
4.1K
Indianapolis
<1%
1¢
$100.00
54.8K
Jacksonville
<1%
1¢
$100.00
87.5K
Kansas City
<1%
1¢
$100.00
16.5K
Los Angeles C
<1%
1¢
$100.00
31.4K
Los Angeles R
<1%
1¢
$100.00
94.8K
Miami
<1%
1¢
$100.00
36.1K
Minnesota
<1%
1¢
$100.00
80.2K
New England
<1%
1¢
$100.00
89.8K
New Orleans
<1%
1¢
$100.00
1.6K
New York G
<1%
1¢
$100.00
46.1K
New York J
<1%
1¢
$100.00
4.0K
Pittsburgh
<1%
1¢
$100.00
28.9K
Tampa Bay
<1%
1¢
$100.00
86.1K
Tennessee
<1%
1¢
$100.00
6.7K
Washington
<1%
1¢
$100.00
59.7K
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: Maxx Crosby's Next Team Maxx Crosby, San Francisco
San Francisco State University cutting 3 sports teams amid budget woesCBS News · 3 days agoUpdated on: March 6, 2025 / 6:02 PM PST / CBS San Francisco San Francisco State University announced Thursday that three athletic programs will be disbanded at the end of the school year, as the school's athletics program faces a major…
8-Year San Francisco Giants Player Immediately Becomes Free AgentHEAVY · 2 days agoThe San Francisco Giants had come into the 2026 season with a very talented roster. That said, they struggled under first-year manager Tony Vitello. The Giants also made a lot of trades (and dealt with injuries). This week, a former Giants…
San Francisco 49ers Welcoming Back 11-Year Veteran WR for Raiders GameHEAVY · 2 days agoThe San Francisco 49ers are coming off a much-needed bye week, but they’re still dealing with a plethora of injuries across the roster. The 49ers will host the Las Vegas Raiders at Levi’s Stadium on Sunday afternoon as they look to earn…
4-Year San Francisco Giants Player Shares Heartfelt Message Following ReleaseHEAVY · 3 days agoThe San Francisco Giants announced a series of roster moves this offseason to cut their 40-man roster back to 40 players. The Giants announced on Nov. 2 that they have released right-handed pitcher Tristan Beck. Beck quickly found a new…
TRADE: MLB World Reacts To San Francisco Giants Announcing Deal With NationalsHEAVY · 3 days agoThe San Francisco Giants came into the 2026 season with a high-profile roster. That said, they missed the 2026 MLB playoffs. Ultimately, the Giants dealt with a lot of injuries (and made trades). GettyReiver Sanmartin #48 of the San…
Wahine hoops falls short at San FranciscoWest Hawaii Today · 3 days agoPublished 12:05 am Saturday, November 7, 2026 By Billy Hull Honolulu Star-Advertiser Hawaii Rainbow Wahine Ritorya Tamilo Hawaii first-year women’s basketball coach Khalilah Mitchell isn’t a fan of moral victories. After watching her team…
3 Positions the San Francisco Giants Must UpgradeSan Francisco Giants On SI · 4 days agoFor the Giants to avoid another difficult season, upgrading the starting rotation, bullpen and outfield needs to be a primary focus this offseason. Posey should focus on signing at least one proven starter, preferably two, instead of…
Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Football. Prices read from the venues 3 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Football, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Football index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Football Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions